ГЛАВА 3. ЗАКОН БОЛЬШИХ ЧИСЕЛ

ЭПИГРАФЫ

Wilhelm Wundt (1862). Beitrage zur Theorie der Sinneswahmehmung, p. xxv. Leipzig. John

Herschel (1850). «Quetelet on probabilities.» Edinburgh Review 92,42.

Herbert Spencer (1880). The Study of Sociology, 9th ed., p. 39. Otto Zeller, OsnabrUck, 1966.

   1 L. Boltzmann, in W.Hoeflechner, ed. (1994). Ludwig Boltzmann: Leben und Briefe. Pub-likationen aus dem Archiv der Universitat Graz, Akademische Druck- und Verlaganstalt, Graz. English translation by ERohrlich (1992). «А poem by Ludwig Boltzmann,» American Journal of Physics 60,972-73.

   2 D.L. Goodstein (1975). States of Matter; p. 1. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.

   3 R.Musil (1953-60; written 1930-42). The Man Without Qualities, trans. E.Wilkins and E. Kaiser. Seeker & Warburg, London.

   4 W.Petty (1691). «The political anatomy of Ireland.» In С H.Hull, ed. (1899). The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty, vol. 1, p. 129. Cambridge University Press.

   5 J.Graunt (1662). Observations upon the Bills of Mortality. In С H.Hull, ed. (1899). The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty, vol. 2, p. 334. Cambridge University Press.

   6 Цит. no D.J. Boorstin (1985). The Discoverers, p. 668. Vintage, New York.

   7 T.Short (1767). A Complete History of the Increase and Decrease of Mankind, p. i. London.

   8 I.Kant (1784). On History, ed. L.Beck (1963), p. 11. Bobbs-Merrill, Indianapolis.

   9 J.-A.-N. de Condorcet (1785). Essai sur Гapplication de Vanalyse a laprobabilite des decisions renduesa la plurite des voix. Quoted in J. Carey, ed. (1999). The Faber Book of Utopias, pp. 161-62. Faber & Faber, London.

   10 J.-A.-N. de Condorcet (1795). Esquisse d'un Tableau Historique des Progres de VEsprit

   * Humain. Quoted in Carey, p. 165.

   11 Condorcet (1795). Esquisse. Quoted in R.Bierstedt, ed. (1959). The Making of Society, p. 168. Random House, New York.

   12 J.T. Desaguliers (1728). The Newtonian System of the World, 11.17-18. Quoted in M. С Jacob (1981). The Radical Enlightenment: Pantheists, Freemasons and Republicans, p. 124. Allen & Unwin, London.

   13 D. Hume (1741). «That politics may be reduced to a science.» In Selected Essays, ed. S.Copley & AEdgar (1993), pp. 13-24. Oxford University Press.

   14 J.Swift (1726). Gulliver's Travels, book ii, p. 176. Penguin, Harmondsworth, England, 1985.

   15 E. Burke (1790). Reflections on the Revolution in France, para. 98. J.Dodsley Lond Republished С. С O'Brien, ed. (1982). Penguin, Harmondsworth.

   16 A.Comte (1830-42). Cours de philosophiepositive. Quoted in Bierstedt, p. 192

   17 AQuetelet (1830-31). «Lettre a M. le Bourgmestre, 15 dec. 1831.» Annuaire de Vobservatoire de Bruxelles 1, 285 (1834); «Letter to Bouvard,» 5 November 1830, quoted J.Lottin (1912), Quetelet: Statistician et Sociologue, p. 52. Institut Superieur de Philosophie, Louvain.

   18 AQuetelet (1840). «Notice scientifique» for his book Sur Vhomme, Annuaire de TObsvatoire de Bruxelles 7, 230.

   19 AQuetelet (1832). «Recherches sur le penchant au crime aux differens ages» Nou veaux memoires de Vacademie royale des sciences et belles-lettres de Bruxelles 7,136

   20 A. Quetelet (1835). SurVhomme et le developpement de sesfacultes_y ou essai de physique sociale, p. 289. Bachelier, Paris.

   21 A.Quetelet (1835). «Recherches,» p. 6.

   22 J.Herschel (1850). «Quetelet on Probabilities.» Edinburgh Reivew92,14.

   23 J.S. Mill (1862). A System of Logic, in Collected Works, vols. 7 and 8 (ed. J.M. Robson) p. 932. University of Toronto Press, 1973.

   24 H.T. Buckle (1857-61). History of Civilization in England, vol. 2, p. 244. New York, 1913.

   25 I.Kant (1784). «Idea of a Universal History from a Cosmopolitan Point of View.» See I.Kant, On History, p. 11.

   26 H.T. Buckle (1857-61). History of Civilization in England. See F.Stern (ed.), The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present, 2nd ed., pp. 121-32. Macmillan, London, 1970.

   27 W.Newmarch (1860). «Some Observations on the Present Position of Statistical Inquiry with Suggestions for Improving the Organization and Efficiency of the International Statistical Congress.» Journal of the Statistical Society of London 23,362.

   28 N.W. Senior (1860). «Opening address of Nassau W.Senior, Esq.,...» Journal of the Statistical Society of London 23,359.

   29 F.K. Hunt (1850). «А Few Facts About Matrimony.» In Household Words 1, 374.

   30 R. W. Emerson (1860). «Fate.» In The Conduct of Life & Other Essays (1908), p. 159. J.M. Dent & Sons, London.

   31 M.Twain (1924). Autobiography, vol. 1, ch. 20. Harper & Brothers, New York.

   32 F.Nietzsche (1874). Untimely Meditation. Second Part: Of the Use and Disadvantage of History for Life. E.W. Fritzsch, Leipzig.

   33 Quoted in L. Campbell & W.Garnett (1882). The Life of James Clerk Maxwell, pp. 294-95. Macmillan, London.

   34 J. С Maxwell (1873). «Molecules,» a lecture. In The Scientific Papers of James Clerk Maxwell ed. W.D. Niven, vol. 2, p. 374. Cambridge University Press, 1890.

   35 Quoted in Campbell & Garnett, pp. 438-39.

   36 L.Boltzmann (1872). «Weitere Studien fiber das Warmegleichgewicht unter Gas- molekiilen.» In Wissenschaftliche Abhandlungen, ed. F.Hasenbhrl, vol. 1, p. 317. J.A. Barth, Leipzig, 1909.

   37 P.G. Tait (1886). «On the foundations of the kinetic theory of gases.» In Scientific Papers, vol. 2, p. 126. Cambridge University Press, 1898-1900.

   38 С S.Peirce (1877). «The fixation of belief.» Popular Science Monthly 12, 1-15. Reprinted in 1974 in Collected Papers, vol. V, p. 226. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. I am grateful to Vincent Bauchau for bringing this citation to my attention.

   39 F.Galton (1875). English Men of Science: Their Nature and Nurture. D. Appleton, New York.

   40 A.-A. Cournot (1843). Exposition de la theorie des chances et des probabilites, p. 181. Ha-chette, Paris.

   41 J.J. Fox (1860). «On the Province of the Statistician.» Journal of the Statistical Society of London 23,331.

   42 A.Taillandier (1828). Review of «Compte general de Tadministration de la justice crim-inelle en France.» Revue encyclopedique 40,612.

   43 Editorial «Introduction.» Journal of the Statistical Society of London 1, 3 (1838).

   44 Quoted in M.Diamond & M.Stone (1981). «Nightingale on Quetelet.» Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 144, 70.

   45 A. de Candolle (1830). «Considerations sur la statistique des delits.» Bibliotheque uni-verselle des sciences, belles-lettres et arts, 104,160.

   46 I.Kant (1784). On History, ed. L.Beck (1963), p. 11. Indianapolis.

   47 A.Quetelet (1847). «De Pinfiuence de libre arbitre de Fhomme sur les faits sociaux.» Bulletin de la commission centrale de statistique 3,142.

   48 A.Quetelet, Sur Fhomme, p. 9.

   49 W.Cyples (1864). «Morality of the doctrine of averages.» Comhill Magazine 10,224.

   50 «The Address of the Prince consort on opening as President the Fourth Session of the International Statistical Congress.» Journal of the Statistical Society of London 23, 280 (I860).

   51 F. Dostoevsky, Letters from the Underworld, trans. С J. Hogarth, p. 32. J.M. Dent & Sons, London, 1913.

   52 Ibid., pp. 29-30.

   53 Ibid., p. 31.

   54 L.N. Tolstoy (1869). War and Peace, trans. R.Edmunds (1969), vol. 2, p. 1,404. Penguin, Harmondsworth.

   55 Ibid., p. 1,426.

   56 Ibid., p. 1,440.

   57 Quoted in N. Ferguson (1997). Virtual History, p. 446. Picador, London.

   58 A.Tennyson (1868). «Lucretius,» p. 10. Printed for private circulation, Cambridge, Mass.

   59 J. С Maxwell (1873). «Molecules.» In W.D. Niven, p. 373.

   60 J. С Maxwell (1867). Letter to P.G. Tait, in C.G. Knott (1911). Life and Scientific Work of Peter Guthrie Tait, pp. 213-14. Cambridge University Press.

   61 M.Smoluchowski (1918). «Uber den Begriff des Zufalls und den Ursprung der Wahrscheinlichkeitgesetz in der Physik.» In Oeuvres, vol. 3, p. 87. Krakow, 1924-28.